Leeds United and West Bromwich Albion could have promotion all-but sewn up in the next fortnight and Stoke City are well on course to stay up – at least according to the latest predicted Championship table.
FiveThirtyEight have used their supercomputer and bundles of data to work out the probability of what is going to happen over the final 10 games.
Luton (90 per cent of relegation) and Barnsley (74) are pretty much doomed already and Charlton (49) are expected to make it a trio of clubs going straight back down to League One.
That doesn’t mean that the rest of the clubs involved in the relegation dogfight can whip out the party poppers just yet.
There is still a 29 per cent chance that Middlesbrough will end up in the bottom three, for Hull it’s 17 per cent and Stoke City it’s 16 per cent. Wigan’s recent form has knocked their chances of going down to 14 per cent while it’s eight for Huddersfield.
Reading (two per cent) are almost on the beach.
Reviewing all the simulated seasons, Stoke average 53 points – so 14 to get in these final few weeks.
And it will take 50 to survive because Charlton are on course for 49.
At the other end, Leeds have a 97 per cent chance of going up – and they win the league in almost every two out of three simulations run by the analysts.
There is an 88 per cent chance that West Brom will book a promotion spot too, while it’s Brentford (41 per cent) who are the highest of the rest. Fulham (28) and Nottingham Forest (16) and Preston (eight) are not completely out of the running.
Fulham are expected to finish third with 77 points – so within three wins or so for Leeds and Albion, who are on 68 and 69 points respectively heading into this weekend.
Where will Stoke City finish this season?
2000+ VOTES SO FAR
Stoke City’s remaining fixtures
07/03/2020 15:00 Stoke City v Hull City
14/03/2020 15:00 Reading v Stoke City
18/03/2020 20:00 Stoke City v Middlesbrough
21/03/2020 15:00 Wigan Athletic v Stoke City
04/04/2020 15:00 Stoke City v Barnsley
10/04/2020 15:00 Leeds United v Stoke City
13/04/2020 15:00 Stoke City v Birmingham City
18/04/2020 15:00 Bristol City v Stoke City
25/04/2020 15:00 Stoke City v Brentford
02/05/2020 12:30 Nottingham Forest v Stoke City