Latest R-rate revealed for West Midlands – including Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire


The latest R reproduction rate for coronavirus in the West Midlands – including Stoke-on-Trent and the rest of Staffordshire – has been revealed.

Current estimates suggest the reproduction rate for the virus in the region is between 0.7 and 1.0 – with 0.8 being the most likely.

The R-rate shows the average number of people who become infected by a person with Covid-19.

In England, it is between 0.8 and 1.0, a range slightly higher than for the UK as a whole, where it remains between 0.7 and 0.9.

R is estimated by independent modelling groups based in universities and Public Health England (PHE).

The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), who published the regional R-rate, notes:  “The reproduction number (R) is the average number of secondary infections produced by 1 infected person.

“An R number of 1 means that on average every person who is infected will infect 1 other person, meaning the total number of new infections is stable.

“If R is 2, on average, each infected person infects 2 more people. If R is 0.5 then on average for each 2 infected people, there will be only 1 new infection. If R is greater than 1 the epidemic is growing, if R is less than 1 the epidemic is shrinking.

“R can change over time. For example, it falls when there is a reduction in the number of contacts between people, which reduces transmission. It is not an exact number, it is a calculated estimate.”

Public Health England have confirmed just four more cases in Stoke-on-Trent, bringing the city’s total up to 833 since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In the Staffordshire County Council area – which is all of Staffordshire except the city – just five more cases have been confirmed, taking the total there to 2,331.

These are the current regional R rates for England (the number in bold is the likely reproduction number while the numbers in brackets are the range):

East Midlands –  0.9  (0.7-1.1) – halves in 27 days

East of England –  0.7  (0.5-0.9) – halves in 9.7 days

London –  0.8  (0.6 – 1.1) – halves in 20 days

North East –  0.7  (0.5-1) – halves in 8. days

North West –  0.8  (0.7-1) – halves in 17 days

Northern Ireland –  0.9  (0.6-1.2) – halves in 27 days

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Scotland –  0.9  (0.6-1.1) – halves in 25 days

South East –  0.9  (0.7-1) – halves in 21 days

South West –  1  (0.7-1.3) – doubles in 90 days

Wales –  0.7  (0.5-0.8) – halves in 7.8 days

West Midlands –  0.8  (0.7-1) – halves in 18 days

Yorkshire and The Humber –  0.8  (0.7-1) – halves in 16 days





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